Agoura Hills, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

154
FXUS66 KLOX 021702
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
902 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...02/409 AM.

An offshore flow pattern will remain in place across the region
through Friday, then a weakening and dissipating front will
approach Southern California from the north. Very light rain is
possible for areas north of Point Conception and for the northern
slopes of the mountains. Gusty winds are possible for some areas
between Friday night and Sunday as the flow pattern switches from
northerly to northeasterly. Offshore flow will establish for much
of next week and warmer and drier conditions to the region with
gusty offshore northeast winds at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...02/849 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is well on track, and no changes have been made to
the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

High pressure aloft continues to build into West Coast this
morning. A warming and drying trend will continue across the area
today as the upper-level ridge axis amplifies. Closer to the
surface, an offshore flow pattern remains in place. Breezy to
locally windy northeast winds are possible, especially through
and below passes and canyons this morning. Gusty Santa Lucia winds
have been a little slower to push into advisory criteria, but the
winds are hovering just below advisory levels at this time. With
the strongest low-level thermal gradients expected toward sunrise,
the wind advisory will remain in effect for the Santa Lucia
mountains for the current time and continue to be evaluated. A
dry air mass will remain in place across the region, keeping most
of the coastal, valley, and mountains area in elevated to brief
critical fire weather conditions. A warm day is on tap for today
as compressional heating processes with the downsloping winds will
warm the coastal and valley areas today. Temperatures in the upper
60s and 70s today will be common with a few sites hitting the
lower 80s.

The pattern will switch for Friday as south to southwest flow will
return and bring a brief reestablishment of onshore flow ahead a
dying cold front. This front will wash out over the region, but
there is still enough moisture and lift to possibly produce very
light rain north of Point Conception and along the northern slopes
of the mountains. The most likely places to see rain would likely
be up near the Tejon Pass and northwestern San Luis Obispo County
between Friday night and Saturday. The latest EPS ensemble
members suggest every solution member with rain for KSDB between
Friday night and Saturday morning. As the boundary will move
south, it will wash out and fall apart. The Southland looks to be
the downslope effects of the low-level northwest flow and the rain
chances will evaporate. PoPs continue to take a drier stance
versus NBM solutions as a result.

A much cooler air mass will get transported south between Friday
and Saturday. Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period
with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s across the coastal and
valley areas. The warmest locations on Saturday could end up
being the South Coast of Santa Barbara County where downslope
effects and less clouds will allow for compressional heating and
less cloud cover. In the mountains, it will be a chilly day with
breezy winds. Post-frontal Sundowner winds will likely develop on
Friday evening and Saturday evening, but the timing of the
boundary passage is little out of phase to intensify the winds for
a stronger event. As a result, a marginal Sundowner wind event is
possible each night across the region. There is a period on
Saturday morning where northerly winds through the Interstate 5
Corridor could reach advisory levels. Deterministic forecast model
output suggest winds hovering near advisory levels at KSDB, but
only about a tenth of the EPS solution suggest advisory level
winds for KSDB. As this is a newer development in the forecast
models and ensemble trending this direction, stay tuned on this
for now.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...02/409 AM.

The flow pattern will shift from northerly to northeasterly
between Saturday and Sunday. The latest NAM-WRF solutions suggest
another round of Santa Lucia winds developing on Saturday night
and into Sunday morning. This will need to be monitored closely as
EPS wind gust means sit just below advisory levels for KSBP. To
the south, a weak Santa Ana will likely set up again and bring a
warming and drying trend with sub-advisory northeast winds. EPS
members keep wind gusts all below advisory levels for terminals in
the typical Santa Ana wind corridor, such as K3A6, KOXR, and
KCMA.

Confidence continues to grow for a warm, dry, and windy pattern
developing for Tuesday through Thursday. EPS wind gusts means
suggest a Santa Ana wind event developing during the period. EPS
wind gusts means approach advisory level criteria for KOXR and
KCMA and sit just shy of advisory levels for K3A6. Based upon the
member solutions, there is a 50-60 percent chance of advisory
level Santa Ana winds developing, and there is a 15-25 percent of
damaging wind gusts developing at terminals in the Santa Ana wind
corridor. Confidence is high for a moderate to strong Santa Ana
wind event between Tuesday and Thursday. There are some
differences in the timing, but pattern recognition of the cluster
analysis combined with the higher resolution EPS members support
the idea of a moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event developing.
Temperatures could end being well above normal across many
coastal, valley, and mountain locations with this event. A
majority of the EPS are suggesting 70s being common across the
coastal and valley areas, but a few EPS solutions are suggesting
record high temperatures for some sites for the latter half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1653Z.

At 16Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 400 feet deep. The
inversion top was 2200 feet and 20 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR everywhere through 04Z after LIFR clouds
burn off soon at KLGB. LIFR ceilings may be very near the
coastline near KLAX KSMO this afternoon, but the risk of ceilings
over those airports is 10 percent or less.

There is a risk of IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities tonight into
Friday at the following airports: KLGB (60%), KLAX (40%), KSMO
(40%), KOXR (30%), KCMA (20%), KSBA (30%), KSMX (20%), KSBP
(20%), KPRB (10%).

KLAX...A patch of LIFR ceilings and visibilities will be near the
coastline today. There is a 10% chance of these conditions moving
over the airport. Low confidence on timing and presence of low
clouds tonight, but there is a 40% chance of LIFR conditions
tonight forming as early as 01Z or as late as 12Z. No significant
east winds expected.

KBUR... High confidence in VFR conditions with minimal winds
through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...02/853 AM.

Moderate confidence in fairly benign conditions through early
Friday, with winds staying under Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
between 10am today and 2pm Friday. There is a 20 percent chance
of brief SCA seas over 10 feet for the outer waters off the
Central Coast and south winds over 20 knots around Point
Conception tonight. Dense fog will remain a concern today for
areas south of the Channel Islands including nearshore.
Visibilities should improve a little tonight but could hover
around 1 mile through Friday.

SCA level northwest winds and seas certain from the Central Coast
to San Nicolas Island Friday evening through at least Saturday
night. 30 percent chance of SCA-level north to northeast winds
on Sunday along the Central Coast (including nearshore) and a 10
percent chance from Ventura through Malibu.

A moderate to strong Santa Ana event is likely Monday Night
through Friday, but exact timing of the peak is uncertain. There
is a moderate risk for Gale Force gusts from Malibu to Santa
Monica during the peak, with a low but present risk over Catalina.

&&

.BEACHES...02/853 AM.

A moderate west-northwest swell will arrive to the area early
Saturday morning, likely (70% chance) bringing high surf to west
facing beaches along the Central Coast (10 to 14 feet) and Ventura
County (6 to 9 feet). Rip current risk will be high. Nuisance
coastal flooding may affect beaches on the Central Coast and
Ventura County during morning high tide on Saturday.

After surf drops below advisory thresholds Sunday, a
longer period west-northwest swell will arrive to the region
Monday, likely (50-60% chance) bringing another round of advisory
level high surf to the Central Coast through the beginning of
next week. There will be similar chances for high surf advisories
for Ventura County beginning Tuesday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PST
      Sunday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST
      Sunday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Cohen
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
BEACHES...Lewis/RK
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox